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The Citizenship Amendment Act, or the CAA, has always been a high-stakes topic in West Bengal and Assam, but multiple surveys by the central government and the BJP stressed on the necessity of its implementation. It is likely to play a crucial role in at least eight Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, indicating why the Narendra Modi-led government notified the law ahead of the general elections.
Four years after the citizenship bill was placed in Parliament in December 2019, the Centre notified the long-pending CAA on Monday. The legislation was put on hold following massive protests across the country, primarily in West Bengal, Assam and Uttar Pradesh.
While West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee called the CAA implementation to be serving the BJP’s “political interest”, sources in the ministry of home affairs (MHA) and central agencies told News18 that the decision came after extensive surveys across Bengal’s border districts and other states with international borders. At the same time, several units of the BJP that worked with Bangladeshi Hindu communities – Matua and Rajbanshi – submitted their reports explaining the need for the CAA’s implementation and the high stakes in West Bengal.
News18 was able to access details of these surveys, which were conducted to gauge the mood in these areas. According to an internal survey by the BJP, at least five seats across Nadia and North 24 Parganas districts in Bengal will be impacted by this decision, while two to three seats in the northern part of the state will also see political-electoral ramifications.
The most important factors include Matuas in south Bengal and Rajbanshis as well as Namasudras in north Bengal. The BJP said it might lose out on votes by other backward classes and scheduled castes if the CAA is not implemented as was promised in the 2019 election manifesto.
“This was long due. The CAA was a promise in the BJP’s election manifesto in 2019. The implementation establishes that the government at the Centre does not backtrack on its promises,” said senior adviser Kanchan Gupta from the ministry of information and broadcasting.
Matuas, Rajbanshis, Namasudras – all want citizenship
The Matua community is a Hindu refugee group that came to India during the Partition and over the following years. There are no exact figures available but the estimated number of Matuas make up close to 10 to 15 percent of Bengal’s entire population. They are known to have a presence across at least five Lok Sabha constituencies in south Bengal, of which the BJP won two – Bongaon and Ranaghat – in 2019.
The Rajbanshis and Namasudras are numerically smaller groups partly comprising Hindu refugees from Bangladesh. They stood by the BJP, which won in three seats dominated by them in North Bengal, in 2019. They form a population of at least 40 lakh and are spread out across Jalpaiguri, Coochbehar and Balurghat constituencies.
The indigenous refugee groups across the region want to be identified and granted citizenship under the CAA. Senior BJP leaders, who led the survey, said Matuas form over 40 percent of the total population in at least 30 to 33 assembly segments of North 24 Parganas and Nadia. This brings the Lok Sabha seat tally in the region to five to six.
Presenting the statistics of the 2019 general elections, the BJP leaders further said the party was able to make inroads into North 24 Parganas last time, following its decision to bring the CAA and mention it in the manifesto. The districts are a part of Mamata Banerjee’s traditional stronghold, southern Bengal, that has around 21 Lok Sabha seats.
Matuas deciding factor?
North 24 Parganas is made up of 33 assembly segments and Banerjee won 27 of these in 2016. But, in the 2019 general elections, the TMC’s numbers plummeted. The party trailed in all 12 assembly seats while the BJP led. Four of these – Bagda, Bongaon Uttar, Bongaon Dakshin and Gaighata – are SC seats with 80 percent Matua population.
Nadia in south Bengal is another district where the Matuas may be the deciding factor. Banerjee led in six of the 17 assembly segments in 2019, while the BJP took the lead in the rest with a reasonably decent margin. They are, therefore, the dominant factor in more than half a dozen Lok Sabha seats in North 24 Parganas and Nadia and, thus, crucial for the BJP.
West Bengal witnessed violent protests in districts like Murshidabad and Howrah after the introduction of the Bill in 2019. The Muslim-dominated areas had maximum protests as the bill spoke about granting citizenship to refugees from neighbouring countries, and Muslims were out of the whole equation.
In January, Banerjee spearheaded a movement protesting the CAA and the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC), stating they were “discriminatory” and isolated the Muslim community.
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