Reporter’s Diary | Who Will Win Rajasthan Elections? Hints Blowing in the Desert Wind – News18

‘Modi Sathe Apno Rajasthan’ and ‘Congress ki Guarantee Hai’ — these two campaign songs became earworms for us after spending a fortnight in Rajasthan in the last month. Between a confident BJP and a hopeful Congress, which song wooed the Rajasthanis more will be known only on December 3. But the hints are blowing in the desert wind in Rajasthan.

Among the voters, the women seemed disturbed by the law and order situation amid some heinous crimes, but still enthused by the smartphones distributed by the Ashok Gehlot government, LPG cylinders at Rs 500 for almost a year now and the yearly allowance promise of Rs 10,000. The farmers looked unhappy over the loan waiver promise of the Congress in 2018 not being fulfilled. The youth, meanwhile, appeared the unhappiest with the Congress over the lack of jobs, the promise of unemployment allowance in 2018 remaining unfulfilled and the 18 cases of paper leaks in the last five years.

The BJP had milked all these issues in its campaign, including the infamous Lal Diary issue, while the Congress has banked its entire campaign on its ‘7 guarantees’, schemes, and claims of development. But it remains debatable if people vote on such issues.

Veteran journalists from Rajasthan would tell you that voting choice ultimately boils down to caste, candidate and party preference. News18 during its travels found the caste equations changed from 2018 as the Gujjars now seem to be going back to the BJP in eastern Rajasthan, and the Rajput anger against the BJP in the Mewar region has subsided since 2018. This may prove crucial.

In 2018, Gujjars and eastern Rajasthan voters went with the Congress thinking their leader Sachin Pilot would become CM. Sachin Pilot was then the state party president. But the same did not happen and Pilot also lost the deputy CM and state chief post in 2020.

Speaking to News18, many Gujjars asked what was the point of voting for the Congress, especially when Pilot had not been projected as the CM even this time. Incidentally, Gujjars were originally with the BJP before a firing incident in Dausa under BJP rule turned them against the saffron party. Congress leaders, however, still believe Gujjars will not vote against Pilot’s party.

The body language of Gehlot and Union Home Minister Amit Shah at their respective press conferences in Jaipur on Thursday carried hints too. Shah seemed confident and said he was sure of a big win. Gehlot’s appeal to people was for a ‘repeat’ in government based on his party’s positive campaign and guarantees.

An undercurrent in the election was ‘Hindutva’ as the Kanhaiya Lal killing case in Udaipur months ago had electoral resonance across the state. Add to it the ‘Modi factor’ and the urge of many to get back a ‘Modi government’ in Rajasthan explains the BJP’s confidence here.

This is why the CM face issue may have faded into the background but is expected to emerge as the unresolved matter in whichever camp wins. Former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje may not have been projected as the CM face so far but she has aggressively campaigned for her loyalist candidates and could be back in the reckoning if 50 or more of her loyalists win the elections. Others like Diya Kumari and Rajendra Rathore are also in the race.

In the Congress camp, Gehlot, at 72 years, seems in no mood to leave the CM’s chair if the Congress wins. The entire campaign has been around him. The PM has predicted that Gehlot will never be the CM again.

Would the Congress chances in Rajasthan have been better placed if the party had chosen to project Sachin Pilot as its CM face? Some of the rallies by Pilot that News18 went to saw huge crowds, but one thing was clear — no one bought into the ‘facade’ of unity between Pilot and Gehlot lately. There were no joint campaign appearances by them except for a few rallies by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi. They hardly exchanged a word at the manifesto release function in Jaipur this week.

When Gehlot went to Tonk district to campaign this week, Pilot was not present on the stage though he was one of the four Congress candidates fighting from that very district. Pilot may have been merely an MLA right now, with no other post in the state, but his shadow prevailed over this election.

In the end, the Rajasthan result could boil down to all this.