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The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition is likely to win 25 seats in Karnataka in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, leaving three for the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), according to the News18 Mega Opinion Poll. The survey has predicted 58% vote share for the NDA, 35% for INDIA and 7% for others.
Covering 518 Lok Sabha constituencies across 21 major states, the News18 Network Mega Opinion Poll, airing on March 13 and March 14, features a massive sample size of over 1,18,616 respondents, representing 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies and making it one of the largest surveys in the country.
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Karnataka is one of the most politically volatile states of the country that keeps the electoral cauldron simmering. From switching loyalties and changing regimes to resort politics, the ‘nataka’ in Karnataka always hits headlines.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP steamrolled the ruling Congress-JDS alliance by bagging 25 out of the total 28 Lok Sabha seats, leaving the one-year-old Kumaraswamy government in a tizzy over its stability.
With the BJP dealing a hammer blow, Congress and JD(S) managed to win only one seat each, indicating that neither arithmetic nor chemistry worked for the two, which apparently failed to reconcile with each other at the ground level.
This was said to be the worst-ever performance by Congress in Karnataka and a record of sorts by BJP, for which Karnataka emerged as the bright spot in the South with other neighbouring states bucking the “Modi magic”.
Reflecting the coalition’s sorry state, Congress leader in the Lok Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge in Gulbarga and former Prime Minister and JDS supremo H D Deve Gowda in Tumkur were defeated by their BJP rivals, making the rout complete.
While BJP secured a vote share of 51.4 per cent, Congress and JD(S) got about 31.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent respectively, poll data showed. Most of the candidates elected from the BJP were MPs in the previous Lok Sabha and were seeking re-election.
An interesting aspect of the 2019 election was that BJP made inroads into the South Karnataka belt, also known as the old Mysuru region, very distinctively.
Of the 28 constituencies that went to the polls, BJP had won in 17, Congress in 9 and JD(S) in two seats during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, during the by-poll in November 2018, BJP had lost the Bellary seat to Congress. While BJP had gained a vote share of 43.37 per cent in the 2014 polls, Congress and JD(S) had secured 41.15 per cent and 11.07 per cent respectively.
In 2014, while BJP had swept the coastal region, did well in the Mumbai Karnataka, central districts and Bangalore and also to an extent in Hyderabad Karnataka, most of the Congress victories came from its stronghold of southern Karnataka or old Mysuru region. JD(S) had won both its bastions of Hassan and Mandya.
Plan for 2024
The BJP released its second list of candidates on Wednesday according to which Union minister Pralhad Joshi will be fighting from Dharwad, while former chief minister BS Yediyurappa’s son BY Raghavendra will be contesting from Shimoga. Bengaluru South sitting MP Tejasvi Surya will fight from his Bengaluru South seat while Yaduveer Krishnadatta Wadiyar will replace Pratap Simha in Mysore. Former Karnataka chief minister Basavaraj Bommai’s name from Haveri was also a surprise.
Simha was embroiled in a controversy as he signed the passes of the intruders to Parliament which led to a major security breach.
Former Karnataka BJP president Nalin Kumar Kateel has been dropped from Dakshina Kannada in favour of Brijesh Chowta, who has served in the Army.
The political scenario has changed significantly in Karnataka. The Congress scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections in May last year and now appears battle-ready, determined to put up a strong show in the Lok Sabha polls.
It is also a role reversal of sorts for JD(S) which joined the BJP-led NDA in September last year and wants to prove that it’s still a force to reckon with, particularly in South Karnataka.
The coming poll is also seen as a “litmus test” for state BJP President B Y Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of leading the party to retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha elections.
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Both the BJP and the Congress have their share of challenges, with finding winning horses on top of this list.
The BJP is facing resistance against fielding sitting members of Lok Sabha once again in some constituencies while also facing alliance compulsions to accommodate its new partner JD(S), according to party sources.
The Congress, which won 135 out of a total 224 seats in the Assembly elections, is keen to field some Ministers but they are shying away, admitted a senior ruling party leader.
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