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Apple’s start of 2024 wasn’t a great one. Among various other factors, one of the reasons that impacted the company’s market cap was the 30% reported drop in sales of iPhones in China. While the Cupertino-based tech giant quickly got ‘good news’, beating Samsung to become world’s number one smartphone maker in 2023, an analyst has painted a gloomy picture for iPhone shipments in 2024.
According to analyst Ming Chi-Kuo, iPhone shipments in 2024 are “likely to decline significantly by about 15% year-over-year (YoY) due to structural challenges”.
“Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY). Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024,” he said, citing his latest supply chain survey.
He noted that iPhone 15 series “will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24” and the new iPhone 16 series (which is expected to launch in September this year) may witness a similar decline in 2H24. These numbers are compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively.
Why iPhone shipments may decline in 2024
Kuo claims that the iPhone faces structural challenges, which will lead to a significant decline in shipments in 2024. These challenges include “the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market.”
Notably, Apple’s sales were reported to have declined in the first week of 2024 with local brands like Huawei and Xiaomi cropping up. As per Kuo, it is due to this reason that the trend of Apple’s weekly shipments decline is expected to continue.
This sentiment was shared by Barclays, which published a research note suggesting \ “weakness on iPhone volumes and mix.”
“The new high-end mobile phone design paradigm includes AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. The main reason for the decline in the Chinese market is the return of Huawei and the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement,” he said in his research note.
Samsung to benefit with AI features
Kuo noted that Samsung, whom Apple beat to become the leader in the market in terms of smartphone shipments, is going to benefit from the higher-than-expected demand due to the integration of GenAI functions. He highlighted that Samsung has revised up the shipments of the Galaxy S24 series in 2024 by 5–10% “while Apple has revised down the shipment forecast of iPhone 15 in 1H24.”
He further noted that Apple is not expected to launch new iPhone models with significant design changes, and the GenAI ecosystem/ applications will not arrive until 2025 at the earliest. Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth is likely to be until then.
According to analyst Ming Chi-Kuo, iPhone shipments in 2024 are “likely to decline significantly by about 15% year-over-year (YoY) due to structural challenges”.
“Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY). Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024,” he said, citing his latest supply chain survey.
He noted that iPhone 15 series “will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24” and the new iPhone 16 series (which is expected to launch in September this year) may witness a similar decline in 2H24. These numbers are compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively.
Why iPhone shipments may decline in 2024
Kuo claims that the iPhone faces structural challenges, which will lead to a significant decline in shipments in 2024. These challenges include “the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market.”
Notably, Apple’s sales were reported to have declined in the first week of 2024 with local brands like Huawei and Xiaomi cropping up. As per Kuo, it is due to this reason that the trend of Apple’s weekly shipments decline is expected to continue.
This sentiment was shared by Barclays, which published a research note suggesting \ “weakness on iPhone volumes and mix.”
“The new high-end mobile phone design paradigm includes AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. The main reason for the decline in the Chinese market is the return of Huawei and the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement,” he said in his research note.
Samsung to benefit with AI features
Kuo noted that Samsung, whom Apple beat to become the leader in the market in terms of smartphone shipments, is going to benefit from the higher-than-expected demand due to the integration of GenAI functions. He highlighted that Samsung has revised up the shipments of the Galaxy S24 series in 2024 by 5–10% “while Apple has revised down the shipment forecast of iPhone 15 in 1H24.”
He further noted that Apple is not expected to launch new iPhone models with significant design changes, and the GenAI ecosystem/ applications will not arrive until 2025 at the earliest. Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth is likely to be until then.
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